What Makes an Adversary? Determining Bargaining Preferences in Crises

• In Event: Experimental Research on the Psychology of Conflict Bargaining

Abstract

The identity of a foreign state has a large influence on whether populations will support conflict or cooperation with that state. But what specific factors create rivalries or benevolent relations between populations and how do rivalries end? Using experimental data from Egypt and Israel, we analyze how three events influence the crisis bargaining preferences of populations: historical conflict, military humiliation and conciliatory diplomacy. By examining variation in crisis bargaining preferences and the mechanisms that shape them, this research diagnoses the popular origins of some crisis bargaining failures and identifies paths through which they can be prevented, reducing the prevalence of recurring rivalries in the international system.

Authors

• Cody Matthew Giddings, University of California, Los Angeles

• Robert F. Trager, UCLA