Deadly Dates: The Effect of Holy Days on Terrorism

• In Event: Engagement in Terrorism: Causes and Consequences

Abstract

How do Islamic holidays affect the incidence of terror attacks? Extant research concurrently demonstrates both an average increase and decrease in violence on these days. I argue that multiple incentives exist that encourage Islamist terror groups to commit violence on holy days. Attacks on these days allows them to signal their religiosity and impose extra terror on their targets.
Governments understand they are triggers for violence though and increase security on these dates. However, their ability to do this is constrained by the length of the holiday due to practical and budgetary constraints. I consequently expect the probability of an attack occurring on holidays that last a few days to be lower than on non-holidays since state security is at its peak. However, holidays that last multiple weeks are more difficult to protect and still provide payoffs to terror groups. They should therefore have a higher likelihood of witnessing an attack than all other days. Data from Afghanistan, Iraq, and Pakistan (2004-2014) support these claims, which have important implications for research regarding the timing of terror attacks more broadly.

Author

• Caleb Lucas, Michigan State University