Minority Candidate and Muslim Voting Behavior: Evidence from Indonesia

• In Event: Religious Minorities: Tolerance and Persecution

Abstract

How do Muslims in a Muslim-majority society respond to an ethnic and religious minority political candidate? To the extent that there is an opposition to the candidate, would such an opposition be driven more by the candidate’s ethnicity or religion? As populist politicians often engage in identity politics, including using religious and ethnic issues to conduct a negative campaign against a minority candidate, it is important to understand how a candidate's religious and ethnic minority affiliations shape Muslim political behavior.

Unfortunately, the existing literature offers only few insights on the questions as it largely focuses on the U.S. or Western countries. Only few studies examine how Muslims in a Muslim society evaluate a minority candidate.

Taking advantage of the presence of an ethnic and religious minority candidate in a gubernatorial election in Indonesian capital Jakarta and employing both observational and experimental designs, I find that ethnic voting mattered more than religious voting among Jakarta’s Muslim voters. Ethnic sentiment and the candidate’s ethnic background negatively affected voter support for the candidate more than religious sentiment and the candidate’s religious background.

This finding holds up even after we take into account voter religiosity and religious tolerance. I discuss what these findings mean to our understanding of Muslim voting behavior and religious mobilization in Muslim countries.

Author

• Nathanael Gratias Sumaktoyo, University of Notre Dame