Violence at Home or Abroad: The Janus of Revolutionary Leaders under Strife

• In Event: Rebel Leaders

Abstract

Existing studies suggest that leaders with previous rebellion participation have a higher level of international conflict propensity than leaders with no such experience. Also, leaders would like to go to foreign aggression under domestic strife. This paper tries to combine the two bodies of literature and examines whether prior rebel experience still induces leaders to initiate an international conflict when they are faced with domestic strife. I find that rebel leaders’ inclination to foreign aggression is contingent on the severity level of the domestic strife. Specifically, when rebel leaders face a risk of severe internal unrest, they are unwilling to engage in international conflicts, because severe domestic strife will reshape leaders’ perception and neutralize their policy preference toward international conflict through three mechanisms. First, high seriousness level of domestic strife calls for a direct and “to-the-point” policy response, which enables domestic measures (i.e. co-optation and repression) to be more efficacious than a diversionary international conflict. Second, severe domestic unrest could modify rebel leaders’ risk perception of available policy options. Lastly, success in rebellion or domestic political struggle grants leaders more confidence in domestic measures to manage the political crisis. Statistical analyses of international dispute initiation of leaders under domestic strife from 1875 to 2000 reveal strong support for the argument.

Author

• Ruolin Su, University of Pennsylvania