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In May 2017, Taiwan’s Constitutional Court stated that the country’s civil code regulating marriage must be amended to allow for same-sex marriage, with most surveys at the time showing a majority supporting same-sex marriage legalization. However, multiple referendums in November 2018 all showed clear majorities in opposition to extending marriage to same-sex partnerships. What explains such a rapid change in public perceptions and what does this say about broader Taiwanese tolerance regarding the LGBT community?
We suggest that early optimism about public support for same-sex marriage may have overlooked not only that public positions were still malleable, but that opposition would use salient frames to decrease support. Furthermore, we suggest that supporters of legalization may have overlooked the lack of deeper roots to LGBT support in Taiwan.
To analyze public support systematically both for same-sex marriage and for LGBT support more broadly, we intend to combine existing survey data or our own original surveys. For publicly available data, we will combine results from the Taiwan Social Change Survey as well as the World Values Survey. Whereas most existing survey questions only ask about same-sex marriage or general tolerance of the LGBT community and rarely do surveys include multiple questions about LGBT issues, our original surveys expand upon this. Via web surveys through PollcracyLab, we not only ask a wider variety of LGBT related questions, but include embedded experiments within each wave to identify the role of framing not only in support of same-sex marriage, but also related issues such as support for those coming out.