Do Rebel Parties Change their Voting Constituencies? A Cross National Study

• In Event: Elections and Conflict

Abstract

In recent years there have emerged a number of studies that have examined the process by which former rebel organizations have “transformed” into political parties (Manning and Smith 2016; Söderberg-Kovacs and Hatz, 2016; Manning 2007). In particular, some have examined the organizational transformation of rebel groups (Sindre 2016; Ishiyama and Batta 2011) and changing rebel party identities (Ishiyama and Marshall 2015). The latter literature has suggested that rebel parties “shift” constituencies during the process of transformation into political parties, and by doing so become less likely to renew civil wars (Ishiyama and Marshall 2017). However, little in the way of systematic cross-national work has been done to empirically examine such shifts. In particular do rebel groups shift voter constituencies once they become political parties? And do they shift even more once they enter government? Or do they become conduits for disaffected constituencies, and thus do not shift constituencies at all, but rather act as “delegates” for the groups that supported them? I develop a theory that explains under what conditions party constituency shifts occur and using data from the World Values Survey, Afrobarometer, and the Latin American Popular Opinion Project, I test this theory cross nationally.

Author

• John Ishiyama, University of North Texas