The Enemy of My Enemy: Partisan Polarization and U.S. Relations with Adversaries

• In Event: How Contentious Domestic Politics Shape Foreign Policy

Abstract

Increasing partisanship in U.S. foreign affairs is often attributed to the collapse of a common external threat, the Soviet Union, which fostered bipartisan consensus within the United States during the Cold War. This paper challenges the narrative that a common enemy generated unity between the two parties. First, drawing on Congressional voting records and floor speeches, I argue that perceptions of external threats posed by major U.S. adversaries do not fundamentally differ between parties in the post-Cold War era, but attitudes over the instruments necessary to combat those threats have polarized across party lines. Second, I support this intuition with an analysis of fine-grained, observational public opinion data about contemporary attitudes towards foreign adversaries during the Trump presidency. Third, using an original survey experiment, I disentangle the effects of external threats and elite cues on polarization over foreign policy. Finally, I assess the consequences this process has for the ability of the U.S. to issue credible commitments to its allies and credible threats to its enemies.

Author

• Rachel Maureen Myrick, Stanford University