If an Endorsement Falls in the Forest: Party Elites and Voter Distrust

• In Event: Poster Session: Political Organizations and Parties & Elections and Voting Behavior
  In Poster Session: Poster Session: Political Parties and Interest Groups

Abstract

Primary elections, in which all candidates run under the same party label, do not offer voters the same partisan shortcut available in general elections. In place of the ability to differentiate between parties, the literature suggests that voters will heed cues from party elites in primaries in order to make complex decisions without full information. However, signaling from party elites is effective only insofar as the primary electorate is receptive to those signals. In this paper, I utilize an original survey experiment to measure the extent to which voters respond positively to endorsements from party elites and outside groups in primary elections. Specifically, I present subjects with a newspaper profile-style vignette of a hypothetical open seat primary U.S. House election in which two candidates are running. The experimental treatment is the type of candidate the profile emphasizes (the control is no emphasis), which will vary on two dimensions: whether the vignette focuses on the candidate endorsed by the party organization or outside groups and whether the candidates’ previous political experience is mentioned. Both of these dimensions should make clear which candidate represents the party establishment’s choice and which candidate is more of a party outsider. I hypothesize that respondents will be less likely to support candidates they perceive as party insiders if they report less trust in both government and party institutions in the preliminary portion of the survey. Preliminary evidence using ANES and CCES data suggests a link between institutional distrust and support for outsider candidates in the 2016 presidential primaries. This study will test that question directly. I expect the survey to be in the field in the spring of 2019.

Author

• Cory Manento, Brown University