Does Austerity Cause Polarization?

• In Event: Economic Shocks, Inequality, and Changed Representation

Abstract

Most European party systems have seen a significant rise in polarization during the past decades. We show that economic policies significantly contributed to this development. Our macro analysis of 180 elections since 1980 finds that austerity, the rise of populism, and political polarization are strongly related, especially if a left government implemented austerity policies. Survey experiments with a total of 8'800 respondents in the Germany, Portugal, Spain and the United Kingdom show why this is the case. If a right-wing government implements austerity, dissatisfied voters mostly turn to the main left opposition party. If, however, a left-wing government implements austerity, dissatisfied voters turn towards non-mainstream, populist parties or abstain from voting because the right opposition does not provide a credible anti-austerity alternative. Our results disconfirm the popular conjecture that left governments are punished more for austerity. Government partisanship matters nonetheless because voters resort to different alternative parties under left and right governments. Austerity, thus, has a profound effect on party systems as it tends to strengthen parties at the fringes of the ideological spectrum and gives rise to populist challenger parties.

Authors

• Evelyne Huebscher, Central European University

• Thomas Sattler, University of Geneva

• Markus Wagner, University of Vienna