Incumbency Advantage and Demographic Characteristics in City Council Elections

• In Event: Poster Session: Women and Politics Research II; Sexuality and Politics; Health Politics and Policy & Representation and Electoral Systems
  In Poster Session: Poster Session: Representation and Electoral Systems

Abstract

Incumbency status is often a predictor of election results from presidential and congressional level to local positions such as mayor or city council. This results in a clear incumbency advantage across many political offices. However, factors influencing the extent of incumbency advantage are relatively understudied at the local level. While some attempts have been made to determine these factors, including voter-level personality attributes and candidate-level campaign finance dynamics, contributing aspects remain underexplored at the municipal level.

This project measures the impact of district demographic characteristics including educational attainment and median income on incumbency advantage in city council elections in Virginia from 2000-2018. A linear regression model is used to calculate incumbency advantage in these elections. Incumbency advantage is then regressed against municipal demographic characteristics using a second, multivariable linear regression model. Additionally, a matched-pairs design compares the results of incumbents in municipalities with similar demographic characteristics.

This project contributes to the nascent study of local electoral politics, adding to a growing body of research concerning trends in down-ballot elections. Additionally, this project, in compiling previously-unpublished data on incumbents in Virginian city council elections, contributes to available data on electoral politics in the state.

Author

• Liam Timmons, George Mason University