Why Formerly Imprisoned Rebels Keep Fighting

• In Event: Rebel and Government Institutions in Civil War

Abstract

How does the imprisonment of rebels affect the likelihood they continue fighting as conflicts unfold? This paper presents an argument for how the experiment of imprisonment shapes rebels’ anger toward, and trust in, the adversary they are combatting. Increasing anger and decreasing trust makes rebels more likely to continue fighting. The paper applies the argument to the conflict in Ireland from 1916-1923. Irish rebel combatants varied in whether they were able to evade capture following their participation in the uprising. The paper uses new individual-level data on 2,000 rebels to demonstrate that individuals who were arrested and sent to internment camps were more likely to fight throughout the entirety of the Irish War of Independence. These findings contribute to research on how governments counter rebellions and violent extremism, by demonstrating how tactics such as mass internment that might be the most effective for combating insurgencies in the short-run, can make peace more difficult to obtain in the long-run.

Author

• Connor Huff, Harvard University