Ruling Party Defectors and Opposition Success in Authoritarian Regimes

• In Event: Opposition Strategies and Authoritarian Resilience in Comparative Perspective

Abstract

Elite defectors from authoritarian ruling parties may offer potent electoral threats when they join the opposition – but many would-be challengers founder and fail in elections against their former allies. When are defectors able to marshal potent electoral threats to ruling governments? To answer this question, this paper analyzes three episodes of regime defection under the long-running authoritarian regimes of Malaysia and Tanzania. New opportunities stemming from eroding incumbent support or economic crisis provided the backdrop for ruling party defection. But in all three episodes, defector success was tightly linked to their ability to supplement – rather than overlap with – existing opposition support. The divergent outcomes show that while the resources and credibility of prominent defectors are important to electoral success, they often fail to bring significant organizational strength into the opposition. Instead, they are heavily reliant on prior party building by existing opposition parties to supplement their organizational and mobilizational weaknesses.

Author

• Sebastian Dettman, Singapore Management University