People Power? Nonviolent Protest in the Shadow of Violence

• In Event: Poster Session: Comparative Politics I

Abstract

Anti-regime protests in dictatorships take starkly different paths: some protests grow when the regime represses them, while others collapse. Still others fail to remain nonviolent, as dissenters take up arms to resist the regime and violent militancy emerges. This paper explains the effects of repression and armed resistance on protest with a model of dissenter coordination in the shadow of violence. Regime repression and violent militants constrain the size and effectiveness of protests. The main findings are that (1) repression leads to backlash protests, but only when militants are numerous, (2) militants can incite larger protests when dissenters strategically adjust to prevent future violence, and (3) extreme repression and militancy decrease protest. I illustrate the model's predictions with case illustrations in Egypt and Syria. The findings contribute to literature on protest and repression in authoritarian regimes, and suggest a mechanism to explain backlash protests.

Author

• Pearce Edwards, Emory University