Natural Hazards, Migratory Flows and Conflict Risk

• In Event: Dissent, Piracy, and Protests: Water Resources and Violence

Abstract

Does migration following from natural hazards increase the likelihood of conflict? If so, to what extent can institutions alleviate such negative consequences? Existing studies have found support for the link between conflict-induced migration and armed conflict. However, migratory responses related to slow- or rapid-onset natural hazards and possible mechanisms that mitigate the adverse effects are less well understood. Using geo-referenced data on people displaced by natural hazards and various types of conflict in Southeast Asia, this paper employs statistical network analysis to explore the role of institutions in the relationship between migration and conflict. Network analysis allows for modelling interdependencies between areas of migratory origin and destination, therefore more accurately depicting the complexity of decisions to migrate. The paper aim to further the discussion on hazard-induced migration and conflict by examining the impact of political institutions and public policies in areas of origin and destination.

Author

• Kristina Petrova, Uppsala University