How Powerful is the President? Measuring Discretion with Experts and Laypersons

• In Event: Presidential Control Over the Policy Process

Abstract

Presidents' "unilateral" sway over policy is a perennial concern of scholars and the general public. Pending executive moves provoke media speculation about how much authority the President has to act. And though every theory of unilateral action presumes some level of discretion, empirical measurement of this concept has lagged behind. In this study, we leverage the judgement of experts and laypersons to discipline these discussions. We field surveys of academics and non-expert, online workforces, using a pairwise comparison framework to estimate the latent level of discretion contemporary U.S. presidents have in 53 policy areas. Our inter-disciplinary academic panel allows us to investigate the sensitivity of such estimates to field and education. Our non-expert survey is unique, in that it allows us to -- for the first time -- take stock of popular misconceptions about presidential power. Finally, we compare our estimates to existing measures derived from statutes and appropriations, and test the received wisdom that executive discretion leads to more action.

Authors

• Kenneth Lowande, University of Michigan

• Charles R. Shipan, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor