Variation in Time Horizons in International Crises: An Experimental Exploration

• In Event: Poster Session: Innovations in the Study of Foreign Policy

Abstract

Leaders’ time horizons are an important predictor of conflict behavior. Yet, the literature does not provide a clear explanation as to why individuals’ time horizons vary. In this paper, I propose a framework that unpacks time horizons and explains variations by integrating the impact of situational and dispositional factors. I posit that the simultaneous effect of these factors shape different time horizons when dealing with a conflict situation. A short time horizon is more likely when addressing a salient issue and expected costs in the response are low. On the other hand, when the issue is less salient and expected costs are high, a long term orientation is more likely. To test these predictions, I employ an experimental research design that manipulates the situational conditions in a conflict scenario and measures individuals' dispositions in this context. The analysis estimates how the interplay between the situational factors and individual dispositions affect time horizons in the context of a security conflict. The results suggest that situational factors, mainly expected costs, and individual dispositions (mostly ‘present bias’) play a significant role in shaping time horizons under these conditions. These findings provide insight into the factors that constitute individuals' time horizons and how interactions among these factors explain variations when facing a security crisis. Considering the important role that time horizons play in policy selection in conflict, the findings of this work improve our understanding of leaders behavior under such conditions.

Author

• Rotem Dvir, Texas A&M University