The Psychological Roots of Citizen Support for Autocracy

• In Event: Poster Session: Political Psychology

Abstract

Why do some citizens support autocratic forms of governance while others prefer democratic ones? After decades of democratic advances around the world, recent years have reversed this trend (Abramowitz, 2018). However, in this day and age it is not totalitarian revolutions or military coups that threaten democracy; rather, the preferences of some of its citizens who support autocratic leaders. Given that democracies are increasingly vulnerable from within, it is crucial to understand why some people support autocratic forms of governance while others prefer democratic ones.

Conventionally, scholars have argued that economic growth and the spread of education foster attitudes of tolerance and trust, which in turn strengthen democracy (Almond & Verba, 1989; Inglehart & Welzel, 2005). Yet, empirical evidence for these arguments is inconclusive, especially outside the world’s wealthiest countries (Seligson, 2007). Others have argued that citizens’ support for democracy is stronger when it delivers clear short-term improvements in their quality of life (Booth & Seligson, 2009; Bratton et. al., 2004). Nonetheless, recent studies show that citizens who believe that democracy has improved their lives are more likely to support incumbents’ attempts to concentrate power and limit the opposition’s political rights (Singer, 2018). In short, existing studies offer unsatisfactory answers to why some individuals support autocracy while others prefer democracy.

To make sense of this contradiction, I offer a novel theory grounded in personality psychology to explain the roots of citizen support for autocratic forms of governance. Incorporating insights from the Big Five model of personality, I argue that individuals who are introverted and closed minded tend to support autocratic forms of governance. Introverts are unassertive and wary of social interactions and, thus, are likely to be politically disengaged. Closed-minded individuals are intolerant of difference, uncertainty, and change. This lack of involvement in politics and low tolerance of diversity makes introverted and closed-minded people likely to support autocratic forms of governance—those that seek to suppress citizen participation and diversity of thought and action. In contrast, people who are extroverted and open-minded tend to be politically active and seek to be exposed to a variety of ideas. These characteristics make extroverts and open-minded individuals likely to support democratic structures that protect and encourage citizen participation and freedom of thought.

I identify two contextual circumstances that activate this effect of personality on support for autocracy. First, I argue that introverted and closed-minded individuals are more likely to be influenced by incumbent leaders’ strong performance in office and therefore support any autocratic measures. Second, introverts and closed-minded individuals are particularly affected by crises that impact economic progress. This makes them more likely to support autocratic leaders who offer immediate solutions to these issues.

I test my theoretical predictions using 2010 public opinion data for Latin America from the Americas Barometer. I find that individuals who are introverted and closed-minded are highly supportive of autocratic forms of governance, particularly when the incumbent performs well in office. This makes these individuals particularly likely to support attempts to concentrate power and limit opposition political rights. When these individuals believe that corruption is not widespread among public officials, they are highly likely to support these autocratic measures. I also find that introverts and closed-minded people are more likely to perceive economic crises as a major threat to stability and progress. This, I argue, makes them more likely to support autocratic leaders outside the current regime who seek to deliver solutions to countries’ issues no matter the consequences. These arguments and empirical findings allow us to understand which type of individuals tend to support autocratic forms of governance and under what circumstances they are more likely to do so, thus providing a holistic theory of citizen autocratic support.

This study has important consequences for understanding the current wave of democratic backsliding. Scholars need to pay closer attention to the fact that some citizens are more likely to be affected by certain events in the political world. To fully comprehend the roots of democracy’s current malaise, we need to understand what types of individuals are more likely to be swayed by autocratic leaders or leaders with autocratic tendencies. From there, we can start to identify how can we help citizens – especially those who are more likely to support autocratic measures – build stronger attachments to democratic principles. This allows us to understand the circumstances under which autocracy rises and democracy declines.

Author

• Paula Armendariz, University of Minnesota, Twin Cities