The Selection of Communist Party Membership: Evidence from Identical Twins

• In Event: Party Politics and Promotion in China: Privilege, Merit, Loyalty and Gender

Abstract

There is a growing interest in measuring the political selection. Research provides theoretical analyses and empirical evidence that a society benefits from a competent leadership. Studies conclude that democracy can promote competent leadership. However, the existing analysis on political selection remains inconclusive regarding the determinants of selecting politicians in a nondemocratic country, such as China.

In the context of China, social scientists have found that the communist party membership has had a positive value for business and personal life. However, estimates concerning the effect of party membership are generally subject to bias. Party membership may be correlated with the effects of unobserved ability or family background, which would create a spurious correlation between membership and benefits.

In this study, we utilize the Chinese Adult Twin Dataset (CATS) to investigate whether a positive selection of party membership exists. We focus on two types of ability, which are well documented by human capital theory, namely, the cognitive and non-cognitive abilities. These two types of ability are extensively considered key elements contributing to the development of nations and the well-being of individuals. Our analysis not only contributes to the literature of the political selection in authoritarian regimes but also provides a clear casual inference result to separate the effect of party membership and personal ability or family background.

In the analysis, we employ an ordinary least square (OLS) estimator and a within-twin fixed-effect (FE) estimator to study the effect of party membership on cognitive and non-cognitive abilities. The comparison between OLS and FE estimates enable us to jointly identify the sign of the two effects.

We have three conclusions in the paper. First, a positive selection effect actually exists for the male population that men with better cognitive and non-cognitive abilities are likely chosen as a party member. Second, the party cultivation effect may be present when the measure for cognitive ability is “Schooling Year.” This result may reflect that party membership provides extra opportunity for re-education or on-the-job education. Third, little evidence exists for the party cultivation effect on non-cognitive ability in our data.

The screening process by the political party in China as a non-democratic country is indicated to matter. The Communist Party of China plays an active role in screening its membership, and a candidate’s ability is suggested as an important element in this calculus. Individuals with higher cognitive and non-cognitive abilities enjoy higher potential to join the party with a better future political life. Notwithstanding the many deficiencies in its political system, the Chinese government has ensured an efficient and meritocratic selection system to rule the country.

Authors

• Lin Lin

• Junjian Yi, National University of Singapore

• Congyi Zhou, New York University