Between Populism and Realpolitik: The Case of Turkish Foreign Policy, 2002-2018

• In Event: Democracy and Foreign Policy

Abstract

Populist politics is on the rise across the globe. In many countries such as Russia, Brazil, Hungary, and Turkey, populist leaders have assumed power through elections, and are drawing on various methods to suppress dissent while also making sure that majority of the constituency backs their governments. How does, if at all, populist politics affect foreign policy behavior? Populist discourses and policies in domestic politics affect a state’s foreign policy through three mechanisms. First, populism encourages leaders to take risky and adventurous, if not aggressive, measures in foreign policy, for such measures allow the leaders to prop up chauvinistic sentiments in domestic politics. Second, populist politics come with a “hand-tying” effect for leaders, making it difficult to reverse or change policy in cases where the costs of not doing so far exceed the benefits from a state-centric perspective. Third, when leaders face a clear and present danger to national security, they may opt for a more “realist” policy, but even then their ex ante populist discourses will likely trigger both domestic and international audience costs. This study uses the “critical case” of Turkey between 2002 and 2018, analyzing Turkish foreign policy toward the Middle East.

Author

• C. Burak Kadercan, US Naval War College