Are Protesters Motivated by Group Size? Evidence from Right­-Wing Protests

• In Event: Right­-Wing Populism in Western Europe

Abstract

Are protesters motivated by their own group’s and the opposing group’s size? We study this question in the context of right­-wing protests and counter-­protests in Berlin. Using Facebook ads, we distributed a survey to potential right­- and left­-leaning protest participants of which 40 percent ultimately took to the streets. The survey randomly provided respondents with different official estimates about their own and the opposing group’s size. We then analyze whether this exogenous shift in beliefs about group sizes affects respondents’ protest intentions and actual protest behavior. Our evidence shows striking differences between right­- and left­-leaning protesters. For left­-wing respondents, we show that protesters’ own effort and that of both their peers and their competitors are strategic complements. Put simply, the greater the group size, the greater the likelihood to protest. For right­-wing respondents, we also find that protesters’ own effort and that of their competitors are strategic complements. Importantly, however, right­-wing protesters’ effort and that of their peers are strategic substitutes. The evidence implies that right­-wing protesters are motivated by strong competition, but free­-ride when their own group is sufficiently large. Left-­leaning protesters, by contrast, are motivated by large turnout—no matter whether it is their own group or that of the competitor.

Author

• Anselm Hager, University of Konstanz