President’s Persuasive Power on International Trade Agreements

• In Event: Poster Session: International Political Economy II & Conflict Processes I
  In Poster Session: Poster Session: International Political Economy II

Abstract

In January 2017, according to a poll conducted for ABC News and The Washington Post, 80% of Republicans and 42% of Democrats supported renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Such survey results present a huge opinion shift from when NAFTA was first signed in 1992. At that time, NAFTA was supported by more Republicans than Democrats. What does such a shift in public opinion on the NAFTA explain? In this paper, I study presidential persuasive power on people’s opinion change on the preferential trade agreement (PTA) using U.S. survey data available in the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research. Analyzing how President Trump has influenced Republicans to change their opinions on the NAFTA, I argue that a president’s opinion on trade policy has a significant persuasive effect on his party supporters’ change of opinion even when controlling for multiple social and economic attributes. Supporting my argument, I also test the data on President Obama’s influence on Democrats’ opinion change regarding the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP). Depending on the statistical approach employed, my point estimates of the persuasive effect of the president’s ability to change the opinion of party supporters on PTAs vary from about 8% to as high as 29%. This implies that a president’s communicative effort of promoting or opposing a PTA due to its effect on the country also has significant influence in changing public opinion on an agreement.

Author

• Ji Yeon Park, Georgetown University