Distributional Inequality and Autocratization: The Importance of Social Services

• In Event: Dignity, Inequality, and Political Regimes: New Approaches

Abstract

Autocratization – the gradual or sudden decline of democratic regime traits – has become a conspicuous global challenge. Many observers have casually associated this political trend with expansions in globalized capitalism and rising economic inequality. Surprisingly, however, few studies have systematically investigated the relationship between inequality and autocratization.

This paper investigates how various forms of distributional inequality affect the likelihood that a country becomes more autocratic. We analyze data from the Varieties of Democracy Institute (V-Dem) on 182 countries (1944-2017). Unlike most studies of the effects of inequality on political outcomes, we consider not only income inequality but also inequalities in the distribution of social services such as healthcare, education and welfare. Social services are important for understanding autocratization because they may empower citizens to hold the government accountable and represent individuals’ experiences with the government.

Our findings suggest that conventional measures of income inequality, namely the Gini coefficient, have little to no discernible effect on the likelihood of autocratization. By contrast, inequalities in the provision of social services have a clear and consistent relationship to the likelihood of autocratization. As countries provide social opportunities - such as health care and education - more equally, they are less likely to experience autocratization.

Authors

• Rachel Sigman, Naval Postgraduate School

• Anna Luehrmann, University of Gothenburg

• Julia Leininger, German Development Institute