Environmental Migration, Urbanization, and Conflict

• In Event: The Politics of Migration, Refugees, and Conflict

Abstract

The impact of climate change on migration and, in turn, conflict is likely to be one of the most serious challenges societies will face over the next decades. Environmental events could force millions of people to leave their homes. This mass movement of individuals, it has been argued, could strain resources and affect communal cohesion in receiving areas, which may lead to insecurity and conflict. Yet, we have limited understanding of the precise mechanisms underlying these processes as well as empirical evidence. We examine the relationship between environmental change, migration to urban areas, and conflict. We contend that conflict is more likely to occur when migration is triggered by long-term (e.g., droughts) than short-term environmental events (e.g., floods). Migrants having experienced long- term environmental events are more likely to suffer from grievances that induce conflict perceptions and urbanites perceive these migrants as competitors for public services and jobs. We empirically analyze this argument with newly collected micro-level data comprising more than 3,500 migrants and urbanites from three cities in Vietnam. The results support our proposition and also emphasize that local socio-economic and institutional conditions matter for the emergence of conflict.

Authors

• Vally Koubi, ETH Zurich

• Quynh Nguyen, Australian National University

• Gabriele S. Spilker, University of Salzburg

• Tobias Friedrich Karl Boehmelt, University of Essex