Counterinsurgency and Voting

• In Event: Citizen-State Interactions in the Shadow of Conflict

Abstract

Counterinsurgency operations are important tools for governments combating domestic militant groups. While such operations often have important security and military consequences, they can also have significant political consequences. In this paper, we study the influence of state counter-insurgency operations on voters’ party preferences and turnout. We use data from Turkey, where from August 2015 to March 2018 the government implemented almost 300 curfews to conduct counter-insurgency operations in the southeastern area of the country. These operations severely restricted civilian movement in the affected areas and in some cases caused almost complete destruction of some towns. To illustrate the influence of counter-insurgency operations on different demographic groups’ voting behavior, we combine a dataset of curfews with monthly individual-level survey data. Using both the geographic and temporal dimensions of the datasets we identify the respondents who were affected by curfews. We then examine the effects of exposure to government counter-insurgency actions on individuals’ decision to abstain from voting, to support the governing party, and to support the Kurdish opposition party which has ethnic ties with the insurgency. We find that exposure to curfews deterred voters from supporting the Kurdish opposition party but did not have much effect on their support for the governing party. Following exposure to counter-insurgency operations voters who had previously supported the Kurdish party became more likely to report being undecided or express an intention to abstain from voting. Our findings suggest that government operations led to lower support for the Kurdish opposition party through intimidation and de-mobilization of the party’s supporters. Interestingly, despite their repressive nature to civilians in affected areas, these operations did not appear to cause a backlash effect against the governing party.

Authors

• Deniz Aksoy, Washington University in St. Louis

• Margit Tavits, Washington University in St. Louis

• Andrew Menger, Washington University