Going Against the Grain: Anti-Establishment Rhetoric in Europe

• In Event: Anti-Elite Strategies in Multi-Party Competition

Abstract

Mainstream parties in Europe are under pressure. Not only are they losing ground electorally, they are also increasingly under attack by challenger parties on both the right- and left-wing fringes. The use of anti-establishment rhetoric is viewed by many scholars of party politics as a key determinant of challenger parties’ success. Nonetheless the importance of anti-establishment rhetoric, we currently lack a systematic analysis of its exact content and use. This paper employs a new automated content analysis method, using a machine learning approach, to systematically measure the anti-establishment component of party political speeches and texts in 12 Western European countries. This allows us to test whether challenger parties do indeed employ more anti-establishment rhetoric in their political messages compared to mainstream parties, and if they gain electorally by doing so. We then go on to validate our approach through a survey experiment to examine if voters perceive the rhetoric used by challenger parties as anti-establishment, and the extent to which the approve of it. Our new analytical approach to political anti-establishment rhetoric offers a new way of classifying parties, and understanding their electoral appeal.

Authors

• Catherine E. De Vries, Free University Amsterdam

• Sara B Hobolt, London School of Economics

• Mariken van der Velden, Free University Amsterdam