Local Politics Beyond Borders: The Diffusion of Anti-Syrian Curfews in Lebanon

• In Event: Violence, Integration, and Return: Decisions of Syrian IDPs, Refugees, and Hosts

Abstract

The large-scale influx of migrants into a local community, at least in the short term, is often predicted to place pressure on resources, increase competition over employment (particularly with those in low-skilled sectors), and generate scarcities that increase prices. All else being equal, these factors are argued to increase the likelihood of conflict between host and migrant populations. This paper challenges these assumptions through an analysis of migrant and host community dynamics in the context of the Syrian refugee influx in Lebanon, where over one in four residents are now refugees and state capacity remains remarkably weak. Drawing on evidence from an original dataset of spatial, demographic, electoral, and budgetary data on over 1000 Lebanese municipalities and 120 interviews and ethnographic evidence from a year of fieldwork, I argue that the variation in the implementation of municipal curfews targeting Syrians - the most prevalent form of local policy - is explained not by factors related to the presence of Syrians themselves, such as demographic pressure and inter-ethnic dynamics, but rather by local electoral competition and the the spill-over effect of this competition into neighbouring areas. Contrary to much of the expectations in the literature on host-refugee dynamics and ethnic politics, local responses are driven primarily by local leaders’ need to project a sense of local order to residents. Importantly, these effects extend beyond the boundaries of the locality itself into its proximate neighbouring area. In areas where neighbouring towns and villages have recourse to discriminatory curfews, mayors and municipal leaders face greater pressures to act, and curfews present a relatively low cost policy mechanism through which to alleviate fears and project authority.

Author

• Lama Mourad, University of Pennsylvania