Programmatic Foundations of Changing Partisan Preferences

• In Event: Policy and Accountability Inside and Outside of Campaigns

Abstract

Over the last few decades, the constituencies of the two main American parties have fundamentally changed. This gradual process was driven, in part, by changing voting behavior of distinctive groups of voters. What motivates voters that change their partisan preferences? Using the ANES cumulative time-series and existing panel studies (ANES, GSS), we explore the changing constituencies of the Democratic and Republican Party. We find systematic patterns of vote choice that respond to parties’ policy appeals. Cumulatively over a run of two decades these small changes account for a substantial share of the macro-level realignment observable in the U.S. electorate. We thus find that changes in partisan preferences can be, to a large degree, explained by programmatic considerations, not the activation of fixed political or cultural identities. This is consistent with the 'responsible government' hypothesis, which some authors dismiss as a "folk theory".

Authors

• Philipp Rehm, Ohio State University

• Herbert Kitschelt, Duke University