After UN Peace Operations Exit

• In Event: New Directions in the Study of UN Peacekeeping

Abstract

What does happen to a country after UN peacekeeping operations (PKOs) withdraw? This paper provides a quantitative analysis exploring the relations between UN PKOs withdrawal and several country indicators on demography, economics, government capacity, individual liberties and regime types. The paper uses interrupted time series (ITS) with AR (1) error disturbance to gauge trends during the PKOs, possible shift in the immediate PKO withdrawal (“step changes”) and trends after the PKO withdrawal even in absence of control groups. The sample covers the period 1990-2017. During the UN PKOs most of the indicators have positive trends: decline in infant and maternal mortality, increases in GDP per capita, import/exports, food supply, territorial control by the central authority and improvement for a large spectrum of rights and liberties. However, the immediate relations with the withdrawal (“step change”) is associated with an increase of inequality (GINI) and decline of imports, though improvements of physical integrity, political liberties and quality of democracy. The trends after the withdrawal signal an increase in GDP per capita and imports, but deterioration of physical integrity and quality of democracy. This paper does not claim causal effects, but just a systematic correlational analyses of a yet understudied phenomenon.

Author

• Andrea Ruggeri, University of Oxford