Nationalism or Welfare? Turnout Mobilization in Non-Competitive Elections

• In Event: Authoritarianism and Political Behavior

Abstract

Inciting nationalist values despite of economic interests is shown to be an effective strategy for mobilizing voters in competitive elections. However, it is not clear if nationalist mobilization in authoritarian elections can similarly turnout voters against their economic incentives in the face of rising inequality or economic duress. We examine voter responses to economic and nationalist stimuli for turnout using a novel method of combining framing and Item Count Techniques. Using a survey experiment of 1040 respondents, with three treatments plus control and placebo groups, we examine the effects of welfarist and nationalist vignettes on intent to turnout in the 2018 Russian Presidential elections. The results do not show a significant treatment effect for the nationalistic vignette compared to the neutral one. In contrast, the economic vignette induces a significant departure from the neutral treatment. More importantly, the nationalist vignette triggers significant turnout reactions only among those with higher incomes.

Author

• Navid Hassanpour, Yale University