Unpacking the Role of Religion in Asymmetric Conflict: A Cross-national Study

• In Event: The Role of Religion in Conflict Processes

Abstract

Why do low-power, grass-roots religious groups sometimes attack the strong? What role might religion play in motivating or giving such groups the capacity for violent action? What features of religion differentiate weak but religiously-infused groups that engage in conflict from those that refrain from conflict? Because of the apparent role that religion plays in conflicts around the world, the nature of the relationship between religion and conflict has come under increasing scholarly scrutiny. Moreover, there is every indication that religiously infused group identities will continue to affect international security and stability in coming decades. Analyzing why and how religion influences conflict is thus a key aspect of understanding a less explored relationship between religion and populism. Such analyses also would help anticipate the emergence of conflict situations, creating interventions to defuse potential conflicts, and managing existing conflicts.
If religion can enable asymmetric violent conflict, there is a great need to explicate the causal pathways through which it may do so and the factors that shape these pathways. In this paper, we focus here on the conflict-relevant motivations and capacities that religion provides groups. Specifically, and drawing upon theories in a range of literatures, we hypothesize that religious infusion motivates low-power groups towards aggression through the indivisibility of its sacred sites and inviolability of doctrines, and a theology which determines the group’s worldly goals, and its emphasis on and enforcement of group purity. We further hypothesize that religious infusion facilitates the capacity of low power groups to engage in conflict by enhancing within-group solidarity and reciprocity that, in turn, facilitates high compliance with group norms and commitments and the punishment of norm defectors and free-riders and the generation of group-serving institutions (e.g., political parties, community organizations, militia).
Although numerous data sets on conflict exist, we currently lack group-level conflict data sets that clearly identify a universe of cases and would simultaneously allow us to systematically investigate the relationship between power asymmetry, religious infusion, and conflict. Most quantitative studies have generally ignored the multifaceted nature of religion and have instead operationalized it as if it were merely a proxy for culture, ethnicity, and a unitary construct. Convenience rather than theory has often dictated what aspect of religion is measured: adherent population size and religious diversity are two of the more common, but quite crude, measures of religion. To overcome these limitations, we created a new data set based on responses of expert informants (area experts) to a lengthy survey, selecting through a randomized procedure over 100 cases of weak groups from the Ethnic Power Relations dataset. The paper discusses the initial results based on quantitative analyses of these data, and thereby contributes to a more nuanced understanding of the role of religion in conflict.

Authors

• Carolyn M. Warner, University of Nevada Reno

• David S. Siroky, Arizona State University

• Nathan Tarr, Arizona State University