The Impact of Polling Primaries on Electoral Performance

• In Event: New Theories and New Evidence: Studies of Turnout and Election in Taiwan

Abstract

Do polling primaries can really help select “better” candidates? Over the past two decades, Taiwan’s two major parties, Kuomintang (KMT) and Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), have adopted polling primaries as the main feature of their candidate selection methods. This research aims to use empirical data to explore the relationship between intra-party competitions (i.e., primaries) and inter-party competition (i.e., general elections).Previous studies have shown completely two different patterns with respect to the subject: from a viewpoint of intra-party competition, primaries can help legitimize the nominees and give them more media exposures during the primary campaigns. Thus, candidates nominated by primaries may earn some bonus points before joining in the general elections. Yet, from a view point of inter-party competition, harsh primaries could hurt the party’s solidarity. And nominees in fact need to run for two elections that certainly waste their resources and energies. Thus, candidates nominated by primaries may suffer from the primary penalties when running in the general elections. This study aims to solve the puzzle by using Taiwan’s data and focuses on two research questions as follows: first, what kind of district is more likely to adopt primaries to select candidates? Second, to what extent do primaries improve/hurt electoral prospects? In Taiwan, it seems that primaries normally take place in the districts that strongly favor the party. Thus, endogeneity may exist in the relations between primaries and electoral prospects. In order to purge out the problem, this study will use regression discontinuity design (RDD) to clarify the casual relations between the two variables and gauge the real impact of primaries on electoral performance.

Author

• Eric Chen-hua Yu, National Chengchi University (Taipei)