Building Trust After Civil War: Settlements and the Provision of Political Goods

• In Event: The Impact of Civil War Settlements on Citizens’ Attitudes and Agency

Abstract

Fostering political trust among citizens who are members of aggrieved groups, particularly those who took up arms against the government or otherwise provided support for non-state actors, is likely to pose a particular challenge for post-conflict governments. Despite the importance of building political trust among aggrieved individuals if a peace is to prevail, there is little research on this topic. We attempt to address this gap in the literature by focusing on the potential that civil war settlements hold for helping to build individuals’ trust in the central government following an intrastate conflict. Drawing on the literature on political trust, we develop a theory that links political trust to the delivery of political goods. Our theory centers on the potential that civil war settlements have to shape citizens’ perceptions of the government’s ability to deliver security, the rule of law, inclusion and representation in government, and public services in the wake of a civil war. More specifically, we posit that settlements designed to address the grievances of groups that formerly were excluded, marginalized, or otherwise targeted by the government should have a positive impact on those individuals’ perceptions of the delivery of those goods. As a result, the odds that those individuals will exhibit higher levels of trust in government should be greater relative to individuals who do not believe the settlement had a positive effect on the provision of political goods. We test our theory using data from a large-scale survey administered in Mindanao, a region of the Philippines that has seen the Muslim population engage in armed struggle for years in an effort to achieve either autonomy or independence from the central government.

Authors

• Caroline A. Hartzell, Gettysburg College

• Matthew Hoddie, Towson University