Can Power-Sharing Settlements Secure Citizen Support in Post-Conflict States

• In Event: Peace from the Bottom-Up? The Role of Citizens in Peace Processes

Abstract

Power sharing political peace settlements are often advocated as solutions to conflict as they can secure the support of different groups in deeply divided societies. However, negotiators can find it difficult to incorporate public opinion into the design of these settlements. This is because standard survey responses do not provide nuanced information about the preferences of citizens concerning the various compromises contained within potential agreements. To address this gap this paper turns to conjoint analysis as a method that will enable researchers to gain a better understanding of the trade-offs citizens will accept in the design of peace settlements. Drawing upon data collected through two conjoint survey experiments in Northern Ireland and Cyprus, this paper demonstrates how important power sharing institutions are relative to other dimensions of peace settlements and what types of power sharing arrangements can elicit majority and cross community support. In identifying possible zones of agreement between different groups of citizens in divided societies, the paper also has policy implications for the future design of such arrangements and our broader understanding of the legitimacy of post-conflict institutions.

Authors

• Neophytos Loizides

• Edward Morgan-Jones, University of Kent

• Laura Sudulich, University of Kent

• Feargal Cochrane, University of Lancaster