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Why are counterinsurgency campaigns able to overpower some insurgencies and not others? In this paper, we compare two counterinsurgency campaigns in India with divergent outcomes. The one in Punjab was able to subdue the insurgency, whereas the one in Kashmir has had limited success. Drawing on 105 interviews; 54 with security force personnel and 51 with family members of insurgents, we highlight the modes and consequences of insurgent family targeting by the state. Family ties bolster an insurgency. They are used to socialize an insurgent, offer a network of trust, and emotional support. However, as the tactic of insurgent family targeting suggests, family ties are also a vulnerability for an insurgency. The state targets families to: limit the exposure of civilians to violence, threaten active insurgents and deter potential insurgents, and gather information on the insurgency. We find: (1) when insurgent families are accessible to counterinsurgents, they are targeted. (2) Counterinsurgents rely on three unique yet interwoven insurgent family targeting mechanisms; coercion, inducements, and surveillance. (3) When the insurgency evolves successful mechanisms to counter targeting of family ties, it is more likely to prolong its lifespan.
Amit Ahuja, University of California, Santa Barbara
Cecilia Farfan Mendez, University of California, San Diego