Autocratization by Elections: Arena or Trigger of Democratic Decline?

• In Event: Democratic Breakdown and Erosion: The Role of Political Parties and Elections

Abstract

Prior research suggests that elections – particularly during the third wave of democratization – facilitate further liberalization. However, in recent years elections have provided an arena for anti-liberal mobilization and brought leaders with dubious democratic credentials to power. Under which conditions do elections contribute to the decline of democracy – autocratization? Much of the current debate on the causes of autocratization has focused on structural factors such as economic downturns, institutional weaknesses and immigration influx. However, we argue that such factors may only contribute to autocratization if they are used by political elites to mobilize for anti-liberal or anti-democratic alternatives. Elections provide a platform for intense political mobilization and may lead to a change in political elites. Thus, they are a critical juncture in regime trajectories. Therefore, during times of democratic recession, we expect election years to be more likely starting years of episodes of autocratization than other years. We test this hypothesis using a data from the Varieties of Democracy Project (V-Dem) on 182 countries from 1900 to 2018. Furthermore, we test under which conditions elections are likely to trigger autocratization. The findings point to the important role of political parties for mobilizing citizens for pro-democratic alternatives during election campaigns under challenging conditions.

Authors

• Juraj Medzihorsky, University of Gothenburg

• Anna Luehrmann, University of Gothenburg

• Staffan I. Lindberg, V-Dem Institute, University of Gothenburg