Crashing the Party? Elites, Outsiders, and Elections

• In Event: Formal Models of Democratic Backsliding

Abstract

We consider an election between two parties that nominate candidates for office. The parties are polarized on a traditional cleavage, but are also internally divided along a second issue cleavage. We introduce a threat of entry from Outsider candidates, who have the prominence and resources to bypass party elites. We consider when voters will turn to Outsiders, and identify the conditions under which Outsiders will enter an election through an established party's nomination process, as opposed to circumventing established parties via a third-party challenge. We further explore when this threat disciplines party elites and the conditions under which Outsider challenges are most likely to succeed. Our framework highlights how established parties will be especially vulnerable to Outsider primary entry in periods of intense ideological polarization between the parties, and that this vulnerability is especially heightened for the majority party.

Authors

• Peter Buisseret, University of Chicago

• Richard Van Weelden, University of Pittsburgh