Wither Treaties? Obama, Trump, and the Politics of International Agreements

• In Event: Presidential Control Over the Policy Process

Abstract

Are Article II treaties essentially dead as a tool for U.S. diplomacy? Their decline quickened significantly during Obama’s presidency, as he submitted far fewer treaties to the Senate for approval than his predecessors, averaging just 4 treaties per year. In 2015, Secretary of State Kerry remarked, “You can’t pass a treaty anymore.” Trump entered office clearly hostile toward treaties, ordering a reassessment of all multilateral agreements. During his first two years in office, Trump submitted just one treaty to the Senate, suggesting a continuation of Obama’s use of other unilateral devices, including executive agreements and political agreements. Numerous, important international conventions have stalled in the Senate, and prospects for ratification and American participation are dim.

In this paper, I briefly review the treaty records of Presidents Obama and Trump, comparing them to previous presidents. The differences are stark and clearly indicate a marked change in how presidents complete major international commitments, with presidents completing their most significant agreements using unilateral devices (e.g., executive agreements), instead of Article II treaties. Once this is clearly established, I present a series of case studies focused on key international agreements, including major Article II treaties that continue to languish in the U.S. Senate and international agreements completed unilaterally by President Obama and overturned by President Trump. The trends identified in the paper have important consequences for American foreign policy, which are discussed at length in the conclusion.

Author

• Jeffrey S. Peake, Clemson University