Variance in Media Trust under Populist Regimes: Evidence from Latin America

• In Event: Populist Communication

Abstract

Pew Research in 2018 reported a 0.87 correlation worldwide between trust in media and trust in government. But there is a huge and important amount of variation across countries. In India, for example, over 80% of people trust the government to do what is best for the country, but less than 70% trust the media. In Peru, less than 15% trust the government but over 40% trust the media. In the US, 38% trust the media, but only 27% the government. In Australia and Israel, is it about 50-50.

Distinctions are even more obvious when it comes to news sources, with public broadcasters trusted more than private news entities in advanced democracies, but public broadcasters trusted less in more fragile or corrupt states (Moehler and Singh 2011, Tsfati and Ariely 2013). But populists trust the media much less than persons who do not hold populist views, regardless of media source.

As of early 2018, populism is spreading in the US and Europe, but has been staunchly rebuked in Latin America’s most recent elections. There is, then, both variation globally in the direction of populist tendencies and in publics’ perceptions of the media and government within currently or previously populist-led countries.

This paper looks at trust in media and government cross-nationally. Using a constructed data with information from Pew, the Global Barometers and other sources, including sources not in English, I first show where media trust outpaces trust or satisfaction with government, and vis-à-vis. Then, for the subset of countries for which sufficient data exists, I look at how long that relationship has held. I then analyze differences in trust in media between periods of populist administrations versus more mainstream administrations. As expected, trust in media plummets as populists take hold, but data from Latin America shows that, as populist leaders become entrenched, trust in media increases relative to trust in government.

Though correlational, this suggests that increasing trust in media may be one indication of a public’s disenfranchisement with populism. More importantly, normatively, it suggests that populists’ attacks on media may not damn the institution of journalism to be distrusted long-term.

This research is at the intersection of political communication and comparative politics. It shows how events in the Global South might inform scholarship in industrialized democracies. And it contributes to the body of work about developing countries within comparative political communication.

Author

• Amanda Beth Cronkhite, US Army War College