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This paper proposes an analytical framework to address why implemented autonomy
outcomes may differ across ethno-regions in Russia and China. Using a structural
variable, inter-ethnic boundaries, and an agential variable, titular elites’ bargaining
capacity, the framework is applied to a controlled comparison of two ethno-regions with
contrasted autonomy outcomes for the 2010s, Tatarstan (Russia) and Xinjiang (China),
and tested to four more ethno-regions. It is argued that an “integration-distinction
balance” combining high inter-ethnic integration and robust consciousness of interethnic
distinction is conducive to titular elites’ representation in the ethno-regional
state, which can lead to greater autonomy outcome for the ethno-region.