Over the Wall: How Autocracies Select Citizens for Exit

• In Event: Strategies of Authoritarian Rule

Abstract

Although many repressive regimes, like those in the Soviet Bloc and North Korea, greatly restrict emigration, even these regimes allow a small number of citizens to exit. How do authoritarian leaders decide who is allowed to emigrate? Using new data recovered from the East German Stasi archive, we argue that closed autocracies strategically select emigrants who have limited domestic economic value and who pose a moderate threat to the regime. In contrast, those who pose the greatest threat are imprisoned or killed, while those who pose little threat are persuaded to stay or punished for their desire to leave. In this way, leaders neutralize threats to their regime while minimizing the number of people they must jail or kill.

Authors

• Michael K. Miller, George Washington University

• Margaret E. Peters, University of California, Los Angeles