Autocratic Propaganda in Comparative Perspective

• In Event: Democratic Backsliding and Authoritarian Control

Abstract

Why do different autocrats employ different propaganda strategies? We develop a theory of autocratic propaganda that builds on two insights. First, when autocrats confront electoral constraints, they must seek some popular support. To occasionally persuade citizens of their merits, autocrats must instruct their propaganda apparatuses build credibility by occasionally conceding policy failures. Second, where autocrats confront no electoral constraints where autocrats fully secure themselves with repression propaganda aims to intimidate citizens, not persuade. By broadcasting content that everyone knows is absurd, autocrats make their capacity for repression common knowledge among citizens. We test the theory with the first cross-national dataset of propaganda, encompassing over five million articles from 68 countries in six languages. Propaganda in electorally constrained autocracies, we find, is roughly as pro-regime asFox News is pro-Republican. In the most repressive dictatorships, propaganda apparatuses are some five times more pro-regime than Fox News is pro-Republican.

Authors

• Erin Baggott Carter, University of Southern California

• Brett Logan Carter, University of Southern California