Talking Points: A Bandit Theory of Political Agency

• In Event: Behavioral Models of Politics

Abstract

Politicians frequently need to announce their positions on issues before they have access to relevant information. If subsequent information gathering leads to evidence that contradicts the initial statement, the politician may have to admit to mistake. For a politician concerned about her reputation, this creates an incentive to avoid producing such evidence. This paper presents a dynamic model of a reelection-seeking politician with unknown expertise who chooses, in each period, which policy to collect information on from a set of policies with unknown payoffs. Reelection concerns lead the politician to diverge from an efficient information collection strategy and result in sub-optimal policies. The results are contrasted when the voter is rational and when he is a sequential updater.

Author

• Korhan Kocak, Princeton University