Short-Term Persistence in Electoral Choice

• In Event: Cycles in Electoral Behavior

Abstract

Party attachment is thought a stable characteristic that powerfully structures individual orientation towards politics, particularly vote choice. Yet election results in the United States are dynamic even over short periods of time. The common theoretical explanation for this apparent inconsistency -- dynamic elections yet stable and powerful partisanship -- is that short-term forces perturb otherwise long-term dispositions. In this article, I show that short-term forces are more persistent than this usual explanation implies. Using time-series of county presidential election returns in the United States spanning 45 elections over 180 years, I test normal vote and uniform swing models of electoral change against a more persistent alternative. I find support for persistence and evidence inconsistent with normal vote and uniform swing.

Author

• Seth J. Hill, University of California, San Diego