Effects of Citizen Dissent on Legislative Outcomes

• In Event: Public Opinion and Legislative Politics

Abstract

Do the preferences of ordinary citizens affect political decisions and public policies? If so, how do they? This article examines a central thesis of the modern democratic system, whether public opinion has a significant influence on policy making. In modern democracies, to facilitate civic involvement, multiple means have been developed to serve, regularly or occasionally, as channels for citizens to express their opinions as well as to hold the government accountable, ranging from universal suffrage to primary elections, ombudsman programs, public hearings, the lobbying process and referendums. While much scholarly attention has been paid to external influences on the legislative process, it has mostly focused on interest groups and their lobbying activities, which are likely to be guided by organized, well-educated, and professional activists (e.g., Klüver 2011; Mahoney 2008; Schneider et al. 2007). In other words, direct connections between ordinary individual citizens and lawmakers are largely overlooked.
This article attempts to address these gaps in the literature by investigating direct links between the citizenry and the legislature. In Korea, Advance Notice Legislation (ANL) was adopted as a democratic tool devised to embrace the voice of citizens. It is required by law to make a public announcement on a proposed bill that is very relevant to the general public as well as having a high likelihood of affecting their fundamental rights, duties, and/or daily life. Government legislation in the form of administrative/executive orders has been subject to ANL regulations since the early 1980s, years before democratization. But it was hard for citizens to take advantage of ANL as an outlet for their political preferences due to the technological (i.e., only offline submission was possible) and institutional (i.e., the oppressive military regime and its political culture) restraints. The tendency significantly changed, not in the immediate aftermath of democratization in 1987, but after the mid-2000s, both because of cultural and institutional factors (i.e., ICT development and democratization).
This tendency is expected to be maintained, if not increased, under the current Moon Jae-in administration, which was inaugurated after the impeachment of former President Park Geun-hye. In addition to the allegations of corruption, President Park received harsh criticism from the public for being disconnected from the public, which “resurfaced during the scandal that brought her to impeachment” (Fiori and Kim 2018: 161-164). In stark contrast to his predecessor, President Moon is widely known for his openness to the public. Aiming at “no voice left unheard”, he has created a variety of participation programs such as multiple petitioning systems operated by the presidential office (i.e., “Kookmin Cheongwon” and “Gwanghwamoon 1st Avenue”), and government ministries (i.e., “e-People” and “Kookmin Shinmoongo”).
To test the effects of public opinion on the public policy-making process and its outcomes, I analyze whether and how public dissent comments submitted via the ANL system affect the likelihood and duration of legislative bills in the Korean Congress. I also test if this direct link works differently under the two regimes (i.e., the Park and Moon administrations), with vastly differing approaches to citizen involvement in governance. A binary logistic regression model and a negative binomial regression model are employed. Examining legislative bills on the ANL system and comments made by citizens, I have found that citizen dissent does have a significant influence on the likelihood of a bill’s passage. To take a closer look, the more citizen dissent there is, the longer the bills remain in the Congress. This tendency is amplified under the Moon Jae-in administration, emphasizing “communication with the people” as its key policy platform.
In conclusion, by investigating the effects of public dissent submitted via the ANL system of Korea, this research attempts to address the critical theoretical issue, and to suggest an alternative which modern democratic governments can find helpful. The findings suggest that citizens actively participate in the political process to make their voices heard through an appropriate participatory mechanism, but citizens will be more active with an administration that encourages citizen participation with plural policies and institutions. Put differently, political culture and institutions have active interaction that affects the behavior of actors both within and outside the political arena. Hard institutions (e.g., laws, regulations, and policies) and soft institutions (e.g., culture) work in accordance with each other to affect the political development of a society.

Author

• Nara Park, Korea University