Downward Social Mobility, Populist and Extremist Voting, and Democracy

• In Event: Democracy and Democratic Backsliding

Abstract

How does social mobility affect democracy? While a large literature looks at the effect of economic inequality on democratic consolidation and survival, there has been surprisingly little work on social mobility. This paper investigates one possible mechanism through which downward mobility could lead to the erosion of democracy: the election of populist or extremist political parties or candidates. We argue that individuals that experience downward social mobility are more likely to vote for populist and/or extremist parties. We propose two mechanisms that could drive the relationship. First, downward mobility generates discontent with democracy which decreases support for traditional parties and candidates. Second, downward mobility transforms values in a way that is harmful to democracy. Individuals that experience downward mobility become less likely to believe in personal autonomy and responsibility, less trustful, and less supportive of individual liberties, which increases their propensity to vote for parties with undemocratic characteristics. We test the effect of social mobility on voting behavior using survey data on more than 50 democracies worldwide. We find that individuals that experience downward mobility are more likely to vote for extremist and populist parties. We also find evidence consistent with both mechanisms. These findings have very important implications for the stability of democracy, especially given that populist and extremist parties have been shown to be harmful to democracy once they attain power.

Authors

• Christian Houle, Michigan State University

• Michael K. Miller, George Washington University