Information, Conflict, and Trade: Ukrainian Attitudes on Economic Integration

• In Event: Emerging Norms in International Security

Abstract

Scholars of International Relations have long debated the relationship between trade and conflict. Some argue that international economic interdependence reduces the likelihood for conflict by increasing the indirect costs of war. Others maintain that interdependence may increase the threat of conflict. Countries may have incentives to escalate a conflict, if it may improve terms of trade. Trade also strengthens countries, making trade with potential foes or rivals risky. While other areas of International Relations scholarship have significant literatures that examine public opinion as tests of the micro-foundations of theories, the peace and economic interdependence literature is only beginning to make use of public opinion data in this way.
This paper uses an original survey experiment conducted on a nationally representative sample in Ukraine. Ukraine is an interesting case of economic interdependence continuing during a conflict. While Russia's proxy war in eastern Ukraine becomes increasingly violent, the National Bank of Ukraine reported a 38.6 percent increase in imports from Russia alongside an 11.6 percent rise in Ukrainian exports during the conflict.
In the survey experiment, we randomize the information about the relationship between trade and conflict respondents receive before measuring their opinion on what the best future economic relationship between Ukraine and Russia is. Are those who are told that economic interdependence reduces the risk of war more likely to support continuing trade relations with a country labelled an "aggressor nation" by the Ukrainian Parliament? Do those who are told trade with a foe is risky differ in their preferences for future economic relations with their neighbor? Does this information have any effect in the context of an actual, ongoing conflict? We block randomize the treatments, which prime differing potential consequences of economic interdependence, to account for and analyze the effects of regional variation in actual interdependence with Russia.
This research seeks to capture not only what Ukrainians think should be done in terms of economic relations with the Russian Federation, but also provides insight into how beliefs about the relationship between interdependence and conflict can shape those beliefs.

Authors

• Eliza Riley, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)

• Celeste Beesley, Brigham Young University