Wargaming as a Tool for Theory Development: Missile Defense and Nuclear Risk

• In Event: Wargaming and Experimental Methods

Abstract

Wargaming is a useful but overlooked method for theory development, particularly on data-poor questions concerning nuclear weapons. The scholarly debate on the relationship between missile defense and nuclear weapons has been strongly polarized since the 1950s. Optimists argue that defenses will make the world safer from nuclear weapons, while pessimists conclude that defenses will increase nuclear risks. Existing scholarly theories do not account for new technological, operational and strategic factors and thus cannot fully explain the relationship between missile defense and nuclear weapons in the new era of strategic competition. This paper presents the design of a new wargaming approach aimed at identifying factors and mechanisms that explain the impact of missile defense on the risk of nuclear use in the new security environment. It presents findings from a series of King’s College London gaming events run at the UK Defence Academy during 2017-2018 that explored strategic-level decisions of US and European political and military elites.

Author

• Ivanka Barzashka, King's College, London