Experimental Gaming at the Nuclear Threshold: Demographics and Nuclear Use

• In Event: Wargaming and Experimental Methods

Abstract

Recent scholarship using survey experiments conclude that decisions to employ or avoid using nuclear weapons are predicated upon a utilitarian calculus that varies on the basis of respondent identities rather than normative considerations. To assess the effect of demographic drivers such as professional expertise, political affiliation, and gender on patterns of nuclear decision-making, this paper uses data derived from an experimental gaming environment (SIGNAL) in which players engage in a nuclear crisis scenario in an online setting. This data is then compared against data derived from a nuclear crisis experiment. Both data-generating processes allow for a large-n, quantitative analysis of game outcomes, survey responses, and text analysis of chat and survey data with a focus on how demographic factors shape decision-making in crisis—as well as offering a comparison of an experimental gaming approach against the existing experimental and archival methods.

Authors

• Andrew William Reddie, University of California, Berkeley

• Reid Pauly, Massachusetts Institute of Technology