Primary Elections and Presidential Support in Congress

• In Event: Primaries and Candidates

Abstract

This paper investigates how members of Congress positioning relative to the President affects their performance in primary elections. While past research has studied how general elections shape incentives for presidential support in Congress, the role of presidential loyalty in primary elections has not yet been examined. Using data on presidential support on roll call votes and primary election outcomes for the period 1960-2010, I find that members who position against a co-partisan President are more likely to attract a quality primary challenger, perform worse against the challenger, and lose reelection in the primary. Furthermore, I find that loyalty to the president on policy issues plays the dominate substantive role in determining primary election outcomes among members of the President's party over standard variables in studied literature like candidate ideology or fidelity to the party line in Congress.

Author

• Matthew Tarpey, University of Pittsburgh