International Water Treaties, Water Scarcity, and Varieties of Dissent

• In Event: Dissent, Piracy, and Protests: Water Resources and Violence

Abstract

How does water availability influence the incidence of dissent? Do international water treaties abate the likelihood of domestic conflict over water? I use the Social, Political, Economic Events Database (SPEED) to test whether or not dissent is more likely as water becomes less available and whether or not treaties attenuate this affect. I use a disaggregated temporal measurement that is novel to this type of research and is comprehensive in its temporal and international coverage in ways that few other studies are. I find that increased water availability has decreases the likelihood of mass expression and political violence, whereas water scarcity increases the likelihood of both variables. Membership of treaties independently associate with more mass protest but less political violence.

Author

• Christopher Junk, University of Iowa